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LIQUIDITY SERVICES INC (LQDT)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 FY24 delivered revenue of $106.9M (+34% y/y) and adjusted EBITDA of $14.5M (+13% y/y); GMV was $361.0M (+14% y/y). Results landed at or near the high end of prior guidance, with adjusted EPS at $0.32 versus the guided $0.25–$0.32 range, a modest positive surprise vs guidance driven by RSCG purchase program expansion and GovDeals’ take-rate uplift .
  • Mix shift toward Retail Supply Chain Group (RSCG) purchase programs lifted revenue faster than GMV; GovDeals’ revenue growth outpaced GMV on expanded services. This boosted the revenue/GMV take rate to ~29.6% in Q4, up from ~24.6% in Q3 .
  • Q1 FY25 outlook calls for GMV of $350–$385M, GAAP EPS of $0.08–$0.16, adjusted EPS of $0.18–$0.26, and adjusted EBITDA of $9.5–$12.5M; management also guided to ~80% consignment GMV, revenue/GMV in the low-30% range, and total segment direct profit as % of revenue in the low-40% range .
  • Strategic catalysts: authorization of an additional $10M share repurchase, continued AI-driven platform enhancements, and a medium-term path toward $2B GMV and $100M annual EBITDA through organic growth and bolt-ons; management targets “next few years” for these milestones, with credible execution levers across segments .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • RSCG posted new quarterly records in GMV ($95.5M), revenue ($73.7M), and segment direct profit, as retailers expanded purchase programs and sell-in-place consignment solutions; Machinio set another revenue record .
    • GovDeals delivered double-digit GMV (+14%) and revenue (+26%) growth with a higher blended take rate due to service expansion (including Sierra acquisition) .
    • Management highlighted AI/machine-driven functionality improving descriptions, matching, merchandising, onboarding and retargeting, and mobile experience to raise participation and recovery; incremental investment is focused on margin expansion rather than heavy spend .
  • What Went Wrong

    • CAG GMV fell 2% y/y and revenue declined 17% on lower availability of large spot purchase transactions with international clients; segment direct profit fell 12% .
    • RSCG’s mix shift toward purchase programs tempered segment direct profit margin percent y/y and sequentially, even as absolute profits grew on volume .
    • From prior quarter context, management had cited softening prices in GovDeals (vehicles/construction equipment) and macro-related delays/cancellations in CAG projects—risks to monitor into FY25 .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
GMV ($M)315.6 380.4 361.0
Revenue ($M)80.0 93.6 106.9
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)0.20 0.19 0.20
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)0.26 0.30 0.32
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)12.8 14.7 14.5
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)16.0% (12.8/80.0) 15.7% (14.7/93.6) 13.6% (14.5/106.9)
Revenue/GMV Take Rate (%)25.3% (80.0/315.6) 24.6% (93.6/380.4) 29.6% (106.9/361.0)

Segment breakdown (Q4 y/y):

Segment MetricQ4 2023Q4 2024
GovDeals GMV ($000s)184,100 210,002
GovDeals Revenue ($000s)16,054 20,173
GovDeals Segment Direct Profit ($000s)15,238 18,745
RSCG GMV ($000s)74,661 95,538
RSCG Revenue ($000s)49,561 73,704
RSCG Segment Direct Profit ($000s)17,505 18,395
CAG GMV ($000s)56,814 55,417
CAG Revenue ($000s)10,681 8,904
CAG Segment Direct Profit ($000s)8,749 7,657
Machinio Revenue ($000s)3,678 4,163
Machinio Segment Direct Profit ($000s)3,499 3,955

KPIs (Q4 y/y):

KPIQ4 2023Q4 2024
Registered Buyers (approx.)5.1M 5.5M
Auction Participants (approx.)836,000 1,016,000
Completed Transactions (approx.)250,000 279,000

Notes: Consignment sales were 82% of consolidated GMV in Q4 FY24, contributing to the take-rate dynamics alongside increased RSCG purchase flows .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent Guidance / ActualChange
GMV ($M)Q4 FY24$330–$365 $361.0 actual At high end vs guidance
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)Q4 FY24$0.16–$0.22 $0.20 actual In range
Adjusted EPS ($)Q4 FY24$0.25–$0.32 $0.32 actual High end (bold positive vs guidance)
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)Q4 FY24$12–$15 $14.5 actual Near high end
Revenue/GMV Take Rate (%)Q4 FY24High-20s ~29.6% actual (106.9/361.0) At high end vs guidance
Total Segment Direct Profit / Revenue (%)Q4 FY24High-40s ~45.6% (sum seg DP $48.8M / $106.9M) In-line with guide
GMV ($M)Q1 FY25n/a$350–$385 New
GAAP Net Income ($M)Q1 FY25n/a$2.5–$5.0 New
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)Q1 FY25n/a$9.5–$12.5 New
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)Q1 FY25n/a$0.08–$0.16 New
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)Q1 FY25n/a$0.18–$0.26 New
Consignment GMV ShareQ1 FY25n/a~80% New
Revenue/GMV (%)Q1 FY25n/aLow-30s New
Total Segment Direct Profit / Revenue (%)Q1 FY25n/aLow-40s New
Effective Tax RateFY25n/a28%–34% New
OpExQ1 FY25n/aUp q/q to drive growth; leverage improves 2H New
Capital ReturnAuthorization$7.6M remaining (9/30/24) +$10M added 12/9/24 Increased

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current Period (Q4 FY24)Trend
AI/Technology initiativesRolled out “single item receiving tool”; harnessing AI to improve listings, search, and match; focus on platform automation .Incremental investments in AI/machine-driven functionality to expand margins; improving mobile, onboarding, merchandising; retargeting with less friction .Steady execution; focus shifts from build-out to margin leverage.
GovDeals supply/pricingSeasonal strength; some softening in fleet/vehicles pricing; strong seller acquisition and service expansion (Sierra) .Double-digit GMV/revenue; higher blended take rate; record $8.3M Wainwright building sale illustrates real estate potential .Healthy growth; pricing softness manageable; service mix lifts take-rate.
RSCG performance/mixGMV record in Q2; AllSurplus Deals growing; purchase programs expanding; mix pressured margins .New records in GMV/revenue/segment DP; broader purchase programs and sell-in-place consignment; margin percent tempered by mix .Volume acceleration with margin-rate headwind; absolute profit growth.
CAG pipeline/macroQ2: strong industrial/heavy equipment; Q3: project delays, partner sales mix pressured revenue .Q4: GMV -2% y/y; lower large spot purchases internationally; pipeline across heavy equipment/industrial/energy constructive for FY25 .Mixed near-term; improving pipeline supports forward growth.
Public sector real estate (Bid4Assets)Expanding contracts (Philadelphia ramp; new sheriff contracts) .Record real estate sale via GovDeals ($8.3M); additional county online auctions (PA, MN) .Early but growing contributor; single-digit take rates noted.
Buyer growth/network effectsBuyers/participants rising; network effects cited .Auction participants +22% y/y; completed transactions +12% y/y; ~5.5M registered buyers .Strengthening engagement supports scale and recovery.

Management Commentary

  • CEO (prepared remarks): “Our healthy fourth quarter results capped a successful year of market share expansion and consistent growth… each of our segments achieved double-digit annual GMV growth… we grew our auction participants and completed transactions by 22% and 12% y/y… We converted this growth to over $22 million in operating cash flow in the fourth quarter” .
  • Strategy and targets: “Our leadership team has now set its sights on reaching the $2 billion annual GMV milestone… towards attaining the $100 million of annual EBITDA milestone… we expect to realize these goals in the next few years” .
  • CFO (details): “Revenue was $106.9 million, up 34%… GAAP EPS $0.20; non-GAAP adjusted EPS $0.32… adjusted EBITDA $14.5 million, up 13%… cash and investments of $155.5 million; zero debt” .
  • Segment color: “Retail… up 28% GMV, up 49% revenue… GovDeals GMV up 14%, revenue up 26%… CAG down 2% GMV, down 17% revenue…” .
  • Outlook framing: Mix to drive ~80% consignment GMV, revenue/GMV ~30%, segment direct profit/revenue in low-40% in Q1 FY25; OpEx seasonally higher in Q1 with leverage expected in 2H .

Q&A Highlights

  • Buyer growth drivers: Participant expansion broad-based, led by RSCG and GovDeals; Sierra acquisition not the primary catalyst; value proposition to SMBs and consumers remains strong .
  • Investment cadence: Heavier investments made in prior years; going forward focused, incremental investments in AI/machine-driven features to expand margins and improve mobile experience and recovery .
  • Long-term targets: $2B GMV and $100M EBITDA “certainly inside of 5 years… next few years,” supported by marketplace scale, value-added non-GMV services, and bolt-on M&A; Liquidity Services positioned as consolidator of choice .
  • Public sector real estate: Record $8.3M building sale highlights opportunity; category has single-digit take rate but solid direct profit potential; expect contribution to $2B GMV journey .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus (EPS and revenue) was unavailable at time of analysis due to request limits; we attempted to retrieve but could not complete. As a result, we cannot benchmark Q4 FY24 vs Street consensus here.
  • Versus company guidance, Q4 results were at or near the high end: GMV $361.0M (guided $330–$365M), adjusted EPS $0.32 (guided $0.25–$0.32), and adjusted EBITDA $14.5M (guided $12–$15M), reflecting stronger revenue take-rate from RSCG purchase program expansion and GovDeals service mix .
  • Forward estimate implications: Q1 FY25 guidance implies y/y improvement with mix-driven take-rate in low-30% and low-40% for total segment DP/revenue, but RSCG margin percent to remain tempered vs last year given purchase mix; models may need higher revenue and lower RSCG margin rates, with EBITDA tracking in guided range .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Mix tailwinds boosted revenue growth and take rates: RSCG purchase programs and GovDeals service expansion drove revenue up 34% on 14% GMV growth, lifting revenue/GMV to ~29.6% in Q4 .
  • Margin-rate headwinds offset by scale: RSCG margin percent compressed on purchase mix, but absolute segment profit grew; consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin moderated to ~13.6% on heavier OpEx and mix .
  • Guidance execution: Q4 landed at/high end of guidance; Q1 FY25 guide implies continued y/y growth with seasonality and mix shaping profitability; watch RSCG margin percent and GovDeals pricing trends .
  • Balance sheet strength and capital returns: $155.5M cash/short-term investments and zero debt support organic and inorganic growth; buyback authorization increased by $10M .
  • Medium-term growth path: Management sees a line-of-sight to $2B GMV and $100M EBITDA in the next few years via share gains, AI-driven efficiency, buyer expansion, and bolt-ons—credible given multi-segment momentum and network effects .
  • Segment watchlist: Monitor CAG pipeline conversion and GovDeals pricing in fleet/heavy equipment; public sector real estate is a call option with rising activity but lower take rates .
  • Trading setup: Near-term catalysts include Q1 FY25 print versus guidance, continued buyer/participant growth, and evidence of AI-driven margin leverage; buyback provides incremental support .

Additional relevant press releases in Q4 FY24: GovDeals’ $8.3M sale of Missouri’s Wainwright building (segment proof point) and Bid4Assets wins in PA and MN (expanding distressed real estate auctions) .